James Wallner, a former senior Senate Republican aide, said that “if history is any indicator,” Senate Republicans will want to avoid brinkmanship that could lead to a shutdown.  

He said House conservatives don’t have much leverage heading into the spending talks because “right now, the environment is not conducive to a government shutdown.” 

“Most Republicans — especially in the Senate — don’t like shutdowns,” he said. “There’s a general sense that, even though there’s no empirical evidence of this fact, that shutdowns hurt you politically.” 

He pointed out that in December 2022, “we had a lot of senators very upset about the omnibus bill that came” to the Senate floor, but it was only “a matter of hours before there was a unanimous consent agreement” to vote on and pass the $1.7 trillion package.